13 consecutive rated pairings as the same color?

My last 13 rated games requested through the lobby (selecting a rating range and random color) paired me as black (lichess.org/@/mstef/rated). I aborted the last game because I wanted to just test the pairing one more time. After 8-10, I became suspicious. But 13 in a row is unfathomably unlikely.

Prior to switching to rated games, I was requesting casual games with the black pieces to test out new openings. I played probably 40+ casual games as black. Once I switched to rated games again, the streak began.

Maybe this is just a coincidence, but I thought it was worth reporting because of how extremely unlikely that is.

Perhaps it has something to do with cookies which store my previous pairing request? Just a guess...

It is highly unlikely but with randomness it is possible. I have heard of a few other instances like yours where people complain of always getting black but they should be balanced out by people who have a streak of games as white. We just don't hear from those on the opposite end who get a bunch of games as white because they have no reason to complain.

I'm definitely not complaining. I don't mind playing black at all. Just that the chances of it happening is around 0.012%. Then take in to account that I happened to be someone who was requesting nothing but black games for quite a long time and this started immediately after that. That's an amazing coincidence. I thought it was worth reporting in case there is a potential issue on the site; that's all.

The chance of a deck of cards ending up in the order it is after shuffling is about 1 in 10 to the power of 68. Yet it ended up in that exact order. Isn't it amazing?

Every time you start a game the chance of getting black is 50/50. And for the next game it's also 50/50. And for the next... And the next. What you got in the game before does not in any way affect what you get in the next game.

As I said in a similar thread; our brain can not easily cope with randomness. It sees patterns, and if none exists it often create one. You see 13 black games in a row. What happened was that you had a 50/50 chance 13 times and got black each time. It looks like a pattern but it doesn't have to be.

(assuming no bug of course and the mechanism to pick a random works)

@Geniree "You see 13 black games in a row. What happened was that you had a 50/50 chance 13 times and got black each time. It looks like a pattern but it doesn't have to be." Nothing to do with patterns, just probability. Each game had a 50/50 chance of being black, but the probability of being black in 13 games is a lot more remote than any other set of 13 games which necessarily will include at least 1 game as white.

"The chance of a deck of cards ending up in the order it is after shuffling is about 1 in 10 to the power of 68. Yet it ended up in that exact order. Isn't it amazing?" It would be amazing if it was subjected to a functioning sorting machine but which after 60 seconds of sorting resulted in a,2,3,4... etc wouldn't it? There's only one sequence where the cards are in that order; literally all of the other sequences have at least one pair of cards out of sequence.

What @Geniree is trying to say is that any particular colours you have in 13 games is equally unlikely, be it BBBBBBBBBBBBB or BWWBWBBWBBWWB.
Same with the deck of cards. Shuffle the deck. Look at the cards. That specific order is extremely unlikely!

@TheTap I know. But they've missed the point, as have you. The comparison here is not between 13 blacks in a row and any one alternative, but between 13 blacks and every other alternative. Getting a combination of black and whites over 13 games is highly probable. Getting 13 blacks is extremely unlikely. They're not as likely just because both are valid sets of results. That's why no-one is here saying "odd - my colour choice was BWBWBBWBWBBWB and not BWBWBBWBWBBWW".

@TheTap I know. But they've missed the point, as have you. The comparison here is not between 13 blacks in a row and any one alternative, but between 13 blacks and every other alternative. Getting a combination of black and whites over 13 games is highly probable. Getting 13 blacks is extremely unlikely. They're not as likely just because both are valid sets of results. That's why no-one is here saying "odd - my colour choice was BWBWBBWBWBBWB and not BWBWBBWBWBBWW".

Edit: Although I'm not sure what the odds are of two #7 posts in a forum here.

If I'm not mistaken, Lichess try to balance the number of games played with black and white, so maybe you have played more games as white before.
Where you testing your openings with white before?

Edit: I just went to your profile and you have twice as many rated games with white as you do with black, so it probably has to do with that.

14 in a row now (0.0061%).